Refugees in Uganda: The Five-Year Consequences of Humanitarian Funding Cuts and Reduced U.S. Support Under Donald Trump.

By: Olivier BAKOMEZI,
Director of the Refugees Parliamentarians for Peace-RPP
and Chairman of the Congolese Urban Refugee Community.
Date: 10 May 2026

Introduction

Uganda has long been recognized as one of Africa’s most progressive refugee-hosting nations. For decades, the country has opened its borders to people fleeing armed conflict, political instability, and humanitarian disasters in neighboring countries such as South Sudan, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Sudan. Today, Uganda hosts one of the largest refugee populations in the world.

This humanitarian commitment has been sustained largely through international assistance, particularly from the United States and major global humanitarian agencies. However, shifts in international political priorities, especially during the administration of Donald Trump, contributed to significant reductions in humanitarian funding worldwide. The consequences of shrinking donor support are already visible across refugee settlements in Uganda.

If this downward trend continues, the next five years could bring severe humanitarian, social, economic, and security consequences not only for refugees, but also for Uganda and the broader East African region.

A Humanitarian Crisis in the Making

Humanitarian agencies operating in Uganda are increasingly facing funding shortages that have forced them to reduce food assistance, staff, healthcare programs, educational services, and protection mechanisms.

In many refugee settlements, families already survive on reduced food rations and limited access to medical care. Without renewed financial commitments from international donors, the humanitarian situation could deteriorate rapidly within the next five years.

The likely consequences include:

• rising hunger and chronic malnutrition;
• increased outbreaks of preventable diseases;
• higher child and maternal mortality rates;
• worsening poverty and dependency.

Women, children, the elderly, and persons living with disabilities would be disproportionately affected by these funding gaps.

The Threat of a Lost Generation

Education remains one of the most underfunded sectors in refugee response programs. Yet it is also one of the most critical investments for long-term stability and development.

If humanitarian funding continues to decline:

• schools may close or operate beyond capacity;
• teacher shortages will intensify;
• school dropout rates will increase significantly.

Thousands of refugee children could lose access to education entirely.

The long-term consequences of educational collapse are alarming. Young people without access to education or economic opportunity become increasingly vulnerable to exploitation, forced labor, early marriage, criminal networks, and recruitment into armed groups.

A generation deprived of education today could become a generation trapped in poverty and instability tomorrow.

Increasing Pressure on Host Communities

Uganda’s refugee policy is built on coexistence between refugees and host communities. Refugees often share access to land, water, schools, and healthcare facilities with local populations.

However, diminishing humanitarian support risks placing unsustainable pressure on already fragile local resources.

Over the next five years, Uganda could face:

• intensified competition over water and agricultural land;
• overcrowded schools and health centers;
• rising unemployment and economic hardship in host districts;
• growing social tensions between refugees and local communities.

Without sufficient investment in both refugee and host populations, social cohesion may weaken considerably.

Potential Regional Security Implications

Humanitarian crises that remain unresolved frequently evolve into broader security challenges. Persistent poverty, food insecurity, unemployment, and social frustration create conditions that can fuel instability.

If humanitarian conditions continue to worsen, Uganda and the wider region could experience:

• increased criminal activity;
• expansion of cross-border trafficking networks;
• social unrest and localized conflicts;
• vulnerability to radicalization among marginalized youth populations.

While Uganda has maintained relative stability for many years, prolonged humanitarian neglect could undermine this stability and create long-term regional security concerns.

Uganda’s Refugee Model at Risk

Uganda has often been praised internationally for its progressive refugee policies. Unlike many countries, Uganda allows refugees relative freedom of movement, access to employment opportunities, and integration into local communities.

This model has frequently been cited as one of the most humane approaches to refugees globally.

However, sustaining such a model requires substantial and predictable international financing.

Without adequate donor support:

• humanitarian agencies may further scale down operations;
• local authorities may lose the capacity to manage refugee settlements effectively;
• critical public services may collapse under pressure.

The weakening of Uganda’s refugee model would represent not only a national setback, but also a significant loss for global humanitarian leadership.

Why the International Community Must Act Now?

Humanitarian funding should not be viewed merely as emergency assistance. It is an investment in regional stability, peacebuilding, economic resilience, and human dignity.

Supporting refugees and host communities today helps prevent:

• future humanitarian catastrophes;
• violent conflict and displacement;
• long-term dependence on emergency aid;
• regional insecurity and instability.

Investments in education, healthcare, livelihoods, food security, and social protection can significantly reduce future humanitarian costs.

International donors, development agencies, philanthropic institutions, and global financial partners must renew and strengthen their commitments to Uganda before the crisis escalates beyond control.

Conclusion

Uganda continues to carry one of the world’s largest humanitarian responsibilities despite its limited national resources. Its willingness to host millions of displaced people reflects an extraordinary commitment to human solidarity.

Yet solidarity cannot survive without international support.

If humanitarian funding cuts persist over the next five years, Uganda could face a deepening crisis marked by hunger, educational collapse, economic hardship, social instability, and growing insecurity.

The global community now faces a critical choice: act decisively to sustain humanitarian assistance, or risk witnessing one of Africa’s most important refugee protection models fall into crisis.

The cost of inaction will ultimately be far greater than the cost of timely intervention.